Opinion: A Bountiful Monsoon Could Cool Inflation and Prompt RBI to Rethink Rates
A robust monsoon is a godsend for India’s agriculture-driven economy. With the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting bountiful rainfall, Ind-Ra […]
inflation
India’s Middle Class in Crisis: Layoffs, Soaring Costs, and a Dream Deferred
Prakash Bhasi, a 54-year-old technician at a packaging firm in Mumbai, sits at a roadside tea stall, staring at his
Inflation’s Down, But Don’t Pop the Champagne Yet
India’s retail inflation just hit a 67-month low of 3.34% in March, dipping below the RBI’s 4% target for the
Retail Inflation Eases to Five-Month Low of 4.31% in January
The drop in inflation comes just a week after the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced the first rate cut in five years
What does latest RBI surveys tell us on consumer confidence and inflation expectations.
A notable highlight from the CCS is the reduction in pessimism regarding current price levels and inflation compared to the November 2024 round. This suggests that households are perceiving some stability in price movements.
Wholesale inflation quickens to 2.37% in December
Biggest jump was observed for primary articles inflation as it touched to 6.02 per cent, from 5.49 per cent in November.
Inflation falls in December. Rate cut hopes brighten in February
Prices of cereals rose by 6.5% from a 6.88% increase in November, while those of pulses rose 3.83% compared to a 5.41% growth in the same period.
CPI inflation bounce back to 6.2 % in October
Subdued global commodity prices amid concerns over global demand should further aid in moderation of the headline inflation going ahead. In October, global commodity price index declined by 4.3% YoY, while Brent crude prices fell by 15% YoY. However, it is crucial to monitor geopolitical developments closely, as these could significantly influence global commodity markets and supply chains.
Are we looking at a rate cut in December?
Even though this is partly due to base effect, what is more interesting to note here is that the inflation has averaged at 3.65 per cent for the first two months of the second quarter. The RBI has forecast an average 4.4 per cent inflation in the second quarter.
RBI MPC Minutes; Increasing divergence in growth assessments, says Madhavi Arora of Emkay Global
Continued moderation in core inflation was unanimously recognized, but the possibility of higher food prices spilling over to core remains a key concern. Real rate concerns raised their head again, but have not yet become the prevalent view among most committee members. Going forward, the RBI is likely to continue stressing on being ‘actively disinflationary’ and maintain a wait-and-watch mode to assess multiple macro forces, both domestic and global.