On 12 September, the official data showed that the consumer price index (CPI) based inflation largely remained the same as in the previous month at 3.65 per cent in August.
Even though this is partly due to base effect, what is more interesting to note here is that the inflation has averaged at 3.65 per cent for the first two months of the second quarter. The RBI has forecast an average 4.4 per cent inflation in the second quarter.
Hence, even if the retain inflation may move up a bit in September with fading of base effect, on a whole for the second quarter, the inflation is likely to stay within the RBI’s average estimate.
Within the inflation numbers, food prices continue to remain elevated. Food inflation came at marginally higher at 5.7% compared with 5.4% in July.
Cereals, eggs, pulses, fruits, vegetables, had inflation above 6% each with pulses being 13.6%. According to Madan Sabnavis of Bank of Baroda, one needs to wait for the new crop to come in before the prices move down.
The rising concern at this point is a likely rise in the core inflation number as input costs get embedded in prices. According to Sabnavis, this category would move up towards the 4% mark.
For the MPC, the trigger for a rate cut is a sustainable easing in inflation aligned to the 4 per cent medium term target. If the inflation continues to remain below 4 per cent in September-November, the MPC could consider the first rate cut in December.