What are the key takeaways from a weak 2024 verdict for Narendra Modi 3.0?

Finally, the janata’s verdict is out. Majority of the exit polls have been proven wrong when votes were counted on June 4 in world’s largest democracy. Majority of the pollsters predicted BJP-led NDA to secure 350-400 seats in this poll but Narendra Modi-led BJP even failed to secure majority and will have to now rely on coalition partners.

What does it mean for Modi 3.0?

First, this is likely to be a functionally weak government than what it used to be. Expect no hard reforms in this government’s third term which include privatistion bid of PSUs and other tough economic reforms. Modi’s allies will have a say in everything the new government does and BJP can do nothing about it. Coalition pressure will kick in.

Two, Modi factor, which the BJP projected form beginning to end as the trump card for winning this election, hasn’t worked to the level the party expected. The brand Modi has lost its sheen. In a coalition government, Modi will be limited to a party leader and not as an unquestionable supreme leader as he was portrayed by the party in the last term.

Three, Both Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar—Modi’s new coalition partners—will call the shots from now on. Remember, not long ago, Naidu had publicly dissed Modi in the party saying any other leader is better than Modi as a prime minister. How will Naidu and Kumar—known for his quick u-turns—approach this coalition? One needs to wait and see.

Four—the verdict clearly gives way to Congress to return as a strong, rejuvenated political party and Rahul Gandhi as a successful campaigner in the national scene. Gandhi has emerged victorious in bringing back the strength of the opposition and reviving the lost opposition mojo. Modi and the BJP can no longer ignore Congress party as a weak, ineffective opposition as he did till now.

Five, the Ramjanma Bhoomi-Ram temple campaign, which was at the centre stage of  BJP’s campaign this time around, has failed miserably. Even in Faizabad, where  the mandir is housed, BJP lost the seat, despite the fact that Faizabad has around 80 per cent of Hindu population. This is a clear signal that Modi’s Ram temple card hasn’t paid off in this election. The BJP’s rout in BJP too needs to be seen in this context.